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Arctic AI

DeBriefed 20 February 2026: EU’s ‘3C’ warning

W*elcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.* *An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.* # **This week** ### **Preparing for 3C** **NEW ALERT:** The EU’s climate advisory board urged countries to prepare for 3C of global warming, reported the [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/feb/16/europe-climate-advisory-board-3c-global-heating). The outlet quoted Maarten van Aalst, a member of the advisory board, saying that adapting to this future is a “daunting task, but, at the same time, quite a doable task”. The board recommended the creation of “climate risk assessments and investments in protective measures”. **‘INSUFFICIENT’ ACTION:** [EFE Verde](https://efeverde.com/el-comite-cientifico-europeo-urge-a-la-ue-a-reforzar-la-accion-de-adaptacion-ante-un-cambio-climatico-que-ira-al-alza/) added that the advisory board said that the EU’s adaptation efforts were so far “insufficient, fragmented and reactive” and “belated”. Climate impacts are expected to weaken the bloc’s productivity, put pressure on public budgets and increase security risks, it added. **UNDERWATER:** Meanwhile, France faced “unprecedented” flooding this week, reported [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2026/02/17/unprecedented-flooding-in-france-expected-to-last-all-week_6750567_114.html). The flooding has inundated houses, streets and fields and forced the evacuation of around 2,000 people, according to the outlet. The [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/17/red-flood-alerts-storm-nils-exceptional-rainfall) quoted Monique Barbut, minister for the ecological transition, saying: “People who follow climate issues have been warning us for a long time that events like this will happen more often…In fact, tomorrow has arrived.” ### **IEA ‘erases’ climate** **MISSING PRIORITY:** The US has “succeeded” in removing climate change from the main priorities of the International Energy Agency (IEA) during a “tense ministerial meeting” in Paris, reported [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/us-succeeds-in-banishing-climate-from-global-energy-bodys-priorities/). It noted that climate change is not listed among the agency’s priorities in the “chair’s summary” released at the end of the two-day summit. **US INTERVENTION:** [Bloomberg](https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/iea-meeting-ends-without-unity-as-us-pushes-to-scrap-net-zero) said the meeting marked the first time in nine years the IEA failed to release a communique setting out a unified position on issues – opting instead for the chair’s summary. This came after US energy secretary Chris Wright gave the organisation a one-year deadline to “scrap its support of goals to reduce energy emissions to net-zero” – or risk losing the US as a member, according to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-energy-secretary-wright-pressures-iea-quit-net-zero-agenda-2026-02-19/). # **Around the world** **ISLAND OBJECTION:** The US is pressuring Vanuatu to withdraw a draft resolution supporting an International Court of Justice ruling on climate change, according to [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/14/us-pressures-vanuatu-at-un-over-icjs-landmark-climate-change-ruling).**GREENLAND HEAT:** The [Associated Press](https://thesun.my/news/world-news/greenlands-west-coast-shatters-century-old-january-heat-records/#google_vignette) reported that Greenland’s capital Nuuk had its hottest January since records began 109 years ago.**CHINA PRIORITIES:** China’s Energy Administration set out its five energy priorities for 2026-2030, including developing a renewable energy plan, said [International Energy Net](https://newenergy.in-en.com/html/newenergy-2449410.shtml).**AMAZON REPRIEVE:** Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has continued to fall into early 2026, extending a downward trend, according to the latest satellite data covered by [Mongabay](https://news.mongabay.com/2026/02/amazon-deforestation-on-pace-to-be-the-lowest-on-record-says-brazil/).**GEZANI DESTRUCTION:** [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/cyclone-gezani-leaves-59-dead-madagascar-displaces-more-than-16000-2026-02-16/) reported the aftermath of the Gezani cyclone, which ripped through Madagascar last week, leaving 59 dead and more than 16,000 displaced people. # 20cm The average rise in global sea levels since 1901, according to a [Carbon Brief](https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the-challenges-in-projecting-future-global-sea-levels/) guest post on the challenges in projecting future rises. # **Latest climate research** Wildfire smoke poses negative impacts on organisms and ecosystems, such as health impacts on air-breathing animals, changes in forests’ carbon storage and coral mortality | [Global Ecology and Conservation](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989426000727?dgcid=rss_sd_all)As climate change warms Antarctica throughout the century, the Weddell Sea could see the grow

December 22, 2025

*David Sathuluri is a Research Associate and Dr. Marco Tedesco is a Lamont Research Professor at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University.* **As climate scientists warn that we are approaching irreversible tipping points in the Earth’s climate system, paradoxically the very technologies being deployed to detect these tipping points – often based on AI – are exacerbating the problem, via acceleration of the associated energy consumption.** The UK’s much-celebrated £81-million ($109-million) [Forecasting Tipping Points programme](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/18/early-warning-system-for-climate-tipping-points-given-81m-kickstart) involving 27 teams, led by the Advanced Research + Invention Agency (ARIA), represents a contemporary faith in technological salvation – yet it embodies a profound contradiction. The ARIA programme explicitly aims to “harness the laws of physics and artificial intelligence to pick up subtle early warning signs of tipping” through advanced modelling. We are deploying massive computational infrastructure to warn us of climate collapse while these same systems consume the energy and water resources needed to prevent or mitigate it. We are simultaneously investing in computationally intensive AI systems to monitor whether we will cross irreversible climate tipping points, even as these same AI systems could fuel that transition. ## The computational cost of monitoring Training a single large language model like GPT-3 consumed approximately 1,287 megawatt-hours of electricity, resulting in 552 metric tons of carbon dioxide – equivalent to driving 123 gasoline-powered cars for a year, according to a recent [study](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2104/2104.10350.pdf). GPT-4 required roughly [50 times](https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/07/generative-ai-energy-emissions/) more electricity. As the computational power needed for AI continues to double approximately every 100 days, the energy footprint of these systems is not static but is exponentially accelerating. > **[UN adopts first-ever resolution on AI and environment, but omits lifecycle](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2025/12/12/un-adopts-first-ever-resolution-artificial-intelligence-ai-environment-lifecycle-unea/)** And the environmental consequences of AI models extend far beyond electricity usage. Besides massive amounts of electricity (much of which is still fossil-fuel-based), such systems require advanced cooling that consumes enormous quantities of water, and sophisticated infrastructure that must be manufactured, transported, and deployed globally. ## The water-energy nexus in climate-vulnerable regions A single data center can consume up to [5 million](https://utulsa.edu/news/data-centers-draining-resources-in-water-stressed-communities/#%3A%7E%3Atext=Unfortunately%2C+many+data+centers+rely+on+water-intensive%2Cto+supply+thousands+of+households+or+farms.) gallons of drinking water per day – sufficient to supply thousands of households or farms. In the Phoenix area of the US alone, more than [58 data centers](https://utulsa.edu/news/data-centers-draining-resources-in-water-stressed-communities/) consume an estimated 170 million gallons of drinking water daily for cooling. The geographical distribution of this infrastructure matters profoundly as data centers requiring high rates of mechanical cooling are disproportionately located in water-stressed and socioeconomically vulnerable regions, particularly in Asia-Pacific and Africa. At the same time, we are deploying AI-intensive early warning systems to monitor climate tipping points in regions like Greenland, the Arctic, and the Atlantic circulation system – regions already experiencing catastrophic climate impacts. They represent thresholds that, once crossed, could trigger irreversible changes within decades, scientists have warned. > **[Nine of our best climate stories from 2025](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2025/12/22/nine-of-our-best-climate-stories-from-2025/)** Yet computational models and AI-driven early warning systems operate according to different temporal logics. They promise to provide warnings that enable future action, but they consume energy – and therefore contribute to emissions – in the present. This is not merely a technical problem to be solved with renewable energy deployment; it reflects a fundamental misalignment between the urgency of climate tipping points and the gradualist assumptions embedded in technological solutions. The carbon budget concept reveals that there is a cumulative effect on how emissions impact on temperature rise, with significant lags between atmospheric concentration and temperature impact. Every megawatt-hour consumed by AI systems training on climate models today directly reduces the available carbon budget for tomorrow – including the carbon budget available for the energy transition itself. ## The governance void The deeper issue is that governance frameworks